Reality Checkpoint 2024
News from previous year
EXTINCTION REBELLION ACTIVISM
At the time of writing, the lead adviser to the Energy Secretary Ed Miliiband is Tobias Garnett, the former legal strategist at Extinction Rebellion. This should be a cause for concern. Activists should not be advising government.
In July this year, Roger Hallam, the co-founder of Extinction Rebellion was jailed for five years by Southwark Crown Court for 'conspiracy to intentionally cause a public nuisance'.
Four other eco-activists were given sentences of four years. In the words of the judge: "Each of you has some time ago crossed the line from concerned campaigner to fanatic".
19 Dec 24
A RECORD - GAS BURNING
The amount of power generated by gas increased to 72% yesterday because the renewables couldn't cope. It has been a period of low winds and dark skies, and the renewables contribution to the grid dropped to 6%. Nuclear was at 10% and wood-burning using wood chip from the other side of the world, 6.6%. This highlights the problems being caused by the 'Net Zero' activists who are currently determining our energy policy - notably Ed Miliband, who appears to have little knowledge of how energy is generated. The only back-up capable of bridging the gap when the wind stops is gas because all of the coal plants have now been closed. Contrary to claims from the minister, Adam Bell (of Stonehaven Consultancy) says tthat a renewables-based system is not guaranteed to be cheaper.
In other news, it seems that Drax will be using one million tonnes of trees a year to make 'sustainable' plane fuel. It will use wood pellets in the USA in the 'Pathway' project, at a proposed sustainable aviation plant on the US Gulf Coast.
Drax has been accused in the past of burning wood from some of the world's more precious forests after receiving £6 billion in subsidies to do it. Drax says that its pellets are sustainable and legally harvested.
13 Dec 24
NUCLEAR PLANT EXTENSION
Four nuclear power stations owned by EDF will have their lives extended. They are Heysham 1, Hartlepool, Heysham 2 and Torness. The first two were due to be switched off in 2026 but will be operational until 2027. The other two will get an extra two years and will continue producing power until 2030, assuming that the safety assessment is successful. These four stations generate about 15% of the country's electricity.
The government decision to increase its use of intermittent power sources has increased our dependence on interconnectors from Europe.
6 Dec 24
MESSAGE FROM NATIONAL GRID
Received this morning from National Grid Customers UK: "Power cuts are tricky enough, without any fire hazards. Keep a torch handy this winter."
4 Dec 24
AMERICA AND EVs
The President-elect Donald Trump has said he will scrap the Zero-emission mandates for EVs on day 1 of his presidency. The reasons:
1.EVs don't go far enough
2.EVs cost too much
3.Most of them come from China.
2 Dec 24
VAUXHALL CAR FACTORY
The Vauxhall car factory in Luton is to close, with the loss of 1100 jobs. The reason: the Net Zero ZEV mandate. You can't make a profit if your own government forces you to make vehicles which the public doesn't want.
1 Dec 24
BAILLIE GIFFORD
In recent years, BG has been repeatedly criticised by climate change extremists for making investments in fossil fuels on behalf of its investors.
The head of BG, Peter Singlehurst, has recently made company policy clear. He has stated that the company cannot place the agenda of campaigning groups above the interests of those who entrust BG with their life savings.
21 Nov 24
FORD WARNING
Ford has said it will cut 4000 jobs across Europe, including 800 in Britain, because of the low demand for EVs. Urgent action is needed by Government on EV sales quotas to keep the UK car industry alive and healthy.
21 Nov 24
NISSAN WARNING
Nissan has told government that zero-emission cars are not on; their imposition will have an irreversible effect on the UK car industry. The EV quotas, if they remain, will remove thousands of jobs and billions of pounds in investment.
20 Nov 24
AMERICAN ELECTION
America has abandoned student politics and got serious again. Will Britain follow?
13 Nov 24
BENTLEY SLOWS EV DEVELOPMENT
Bentley has delayed plans to go fully electric by five years. This is because demand for these vehicles continues to stall.
8 Nov 24
WHY EVs ARE NOT WANTED
Batteries only warrantied for 8 years if efficency drops below 70%.
Range is nowhere near the advertised range.
Insurance is higher than equivalent internal-combusiion cars.
They will be taxed like petrols/diesels from next April.
No more grants.
Depreciation is huge; dealers don't want used EVs.
China and South Korea [where most batteries are made] have banned cars from parking in underground car parks, garages etc. due to fire risk.
From Stefan D, engineer
7 Nov 24
THE GREEN TRANSITION ISN'T WORKING
The recent budget revealed that the new government has committed to a 'green transition' without using nuclear power. This, as any engineer or physicist will tell you, is nonsensical. Buy a generator while you can, and expect power cuts. The decision makers, led by Ed Miliband, have no understanding of the situation we are in, the damage they are causing, or the jobs they are destroying.
5 Nov 24
NO MORE UK STEEL MANUFACTURE
Eco-fascism has brought UK steel manufacturing to an end. In future, our steel will need to be imported. We have successfully exported our carbon dioxide emissions (not that they are harmful anyway) to less developed countries.
14 Oct 24
NET ZERO IS DAMAGING LOCAL COMMUNITIES
In March 2025, Grangemouth Refinery will be closing instead of celebrating its 100th anniversary. In the process, 400 jobs will disappear.
4 Oct 24
DRIVERS DO NOT WANT EVs
Sales of diesel cars are growing faster than those of EVs as money-conscious consumers refuse to make the switch. In a letter to the chancellor, the bosses of most of the major car manufacturers urged ministers to increase subsidies for EVs or remove flawed legally-binding sales targets. They pointed out that continuing with the present regs would lead to large fines and would risk jobs and investment.
From Jan to Sept, EV sales grew by 3.7% to 11919; diesel sales grew by 17.2% to 9339.
They criticised the government's decision to introduce the zero emission mandate, which requires 22% of cars sold to be EVs, rising annually to reach 80% in 2030. Manufacturers will have to pay a fine of £15000 for every car in excess of that quota.
Signatories included BMW, Ford, Jaguar Landrover, Honda, Kia, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Polestar, Stellantis, Toyota and Volkswagen.
This is a sure-fire way to wreck the UK car industry. Making a product customers do not want is hardly the route to prosperity.
4 Oct 24
THE LAST COAL-FIRED POWER STATION
On Monday, Britain's last coal-fired power station closed. This is not good. It is difficult to think of a better illustration of the damaging approach this country has taken to energy policy over the last two decades.
Policymakers have focused on targets rather than needs and have expanded renewable energy in a push to net zero in the most expensive way possible, ignoring the sensible route: nuclear. The cost of power has doubled in the last five years, with consequences for industry. British firms now pay 50% more than their rivals in France.
With Britain headed for a cold winter and a potential European gas shortage, it is time for an energy policy putting security and cost of supply ahead of idealogical commitments.
2 Oct 24
MILIBAND IGNORING NUCLEAR POWER
On Wednesday, the Energy Department pushed nuclear power ever further into the distant future. It's now about ten years since George Osborne pledged that the UK would lead the world in small modular nuclear reactors. Now the government has decided that the leading UK contender, Rolls Royce, is not eligible for subsidies to get the program running.
Given the looming energy crisis we face, this looks suicidal. By 2030 we will lose 4.7 GW of nuclear production. The government is therefore ensuring that reliable, low-cost baseload energy will not get built. This is a national scandal.
We cannot run the country solely on wind, solar and batteries. All engineers and physicists know this. Why will the government not listen?
30 Sep 24
EV FIRES - DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH KOREA
Authorities in Seoul are preparing new rules which will prevent cars with a battery charged over 90% from entering undergound car parks. This is presumably in response to demands from insurers.
21 Aug 24
200-CAR INFERNO CAUSED BY PARKED EV IN LISBON
About 200 cars have been destroyed by fire in a warehouse near Lisbon International Airport. The smoke cloud from the burning cars covered the city for several hours.
Eye witnesses say the blaze started in a parked Tesla EV which started smoking and then suddenly ignited.
21 Aug 24
ENERGY INCOMPETENCE CONTINUES
Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, talks about home-grown energy, but he refuses to issue drilling licences for oil drilling in the North Sea. Instead he has imposed a series of giant solar farms on high-quality agricultural land. In the case of Sunnica, West Suffolk, he ignored local residents, councils and the expert examining authority. His answers in Parliament suggest he has put green extremism before due process.
Energy bills are forecast to rise by about £150 this winter. So much for renewables being cheaper than conventional fuels and nuclear.
20 Aug 24
EV TRIGGERS A BLAZE IN SOUTH KOREA
On August 1, a massive blaze engulfed a car park at an apartment in South Korea's capital Seoul. The fire was triggered after an electric vehicle emitted smoke and exploded. At least 140 cars were consumed in the fire, which took 8 hours to be put out.
South Korea is a major manufacturer of EV batteries. To address public concerns, the government held an emergency meeting to discuss the situation. They have now recommended that car makers specify the batteries used in their EVs.
5 Aug 24
EXTINCTION REBELLION FANATICS JAILED
Roger Hallam, the co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, has been jailed for five years by Southwark Crown Court. Four other eco-activists were given sentences of four years. Perhaps now the public will be able to travel unimpeded for a while.
The defendants recruited activists to take in a motorway demonstration on Nov 7,8,9,10 2023, causing economic damage of £750,000 and costing the police £1 million. The disruption, on the M25, caused 50,000 hours of traffic delay and affected the journeys of 700,000 vehicles.
Judge Hehir said that the disruption had affected every section of the motorway around London. People missed flights and hospital cancer appointments, students missed exams; two lorries collided; an Essex police office suffered concussion and bruising after being knocked off his motorbike.
The five protesters were convicted of conspiracy to intentionally cause a public nuisance. In the words of the judge: "Each of you has some time ago crossed the line from concerned campaigner to fanatic".
That appears to be an accurate summary.
20 Jul 24
NET ZERO COSTINGS
Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury has said that decarbonising the economy will take hundreds of billions of pounds. At a public meeting in Brighton he said that private capital would have to be spent on infrastructure alongside public subsidy.
To put things in perspective, one billion pounds spread over 70 million people is £14 per person.
The 28 billion Labour had earmarked for green projects is therefore 28 x 14 = £392 each; about £1200 for a family of four. It's since been downgraded to £4.7 billion, which is about £70 each.
Let's assume that Darren Jones was talking about several hundred billion pounds - say 500 billion.
That's £14 x 500 per head of population (= £7000 each; £28,000 for a family of 4).
A Labour spokesman (no name) said that the party's mission is to achieve clean energy by 2030 and that the plan is fully funded and costed.
£7000 per person by 2030? Have a think sbout that.
28 Jun 24
NET ZERO PLANS ARE NOT VIABLE
The GMB Union, representing 500,000 workers in the oil and gas sector, has just passed a motion at its annual congress urging the Labour Party to change course. It points out that Keir Starmer's plan to convert Britain to clean power (ie wind and solar) by 2030 will lead to power cuts. The GMB Union considers the Net Zero plans to be unviable and says that they must be dropped from the manifesto.
The criticism reinforces the comments made by Clare Coutinho, the energy secretary, who said that Labour's plans were ideological and that Labour were pretending that they could decarbonise the grid by 2030; an outcome which is unrealistic and unachievable.
15 Jun 24
WE NEED POSITIVE GREEN POLICIES
The sharp decline in the popularity of Green parties in the EU is a consequence of their negative approach.Too often they advocate for a decline in living standards - by, for example, making meat more expensive - and tell people to stop doing things like flying. The childish and futile actions of activist groups such as Just Stop Oil add to the preception that environmentalists have no realistic solutions to the problems the world faces. (....part of a letter from MD, London, DT 13 Jun 2024; he goes on to suggest that more nuclear power stations would be advisable to provide clean, reliable electricity along with some use of GMOs to reduce dependence on pesticides - ND)
14 Jun 24
CHINESE CAR BATTERY DEVELOPMENT
The International Energy Agency has said that a Chinese battery company, CATL, has developed a fast charging Shenxing battery capable of delivering 400km of range from a 10-minute charge. Apparently the battery is to be used in electric vehicles later this year.
There was also mention of another battery, the Shenxing Plus, with a range of 600 km.
The improved performance is due to advances in the chemistry of lithium iron phosphate cathodes; in particular, removing the dead space.
The IEA report highlighted the fact that most of the supply chains for battery materials are controlled by communist China, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and copper. China dominates global supplies of all such minerals.
6 Jun 24
EUROPEAN AIR FLIGHTS
Willie Walsh, the head of the airline trade body Iata, has criticised European policy on attempting to limit air travel. He said that arrogant Europeans risked alienating the rest of the world by restricting air travel in the name of the green agenda. Countries doing this, following Net Zero rules, were denying other nations benefits that they had enjoyed for decades.
Mr. Walsh made the point that this is solely a European debate; other parts of the world are carrying on with flights as normal.
Yvonne Manzi Makolo, head of African carrier Rwandair, said that because of the continent's poor roads and lack of railways, air travel is the only way to go. She said that saying they should slow down growth doesn't make sense.
Mr. Walsh said that the air industry does not have the resources to decarbonise without government help. All costs would have to be passed to passengers. The costs could not be borne by the industry because it was working on very thin margins.
3 Jun 24
POLITICS AND RENEWABLES PRICES
Politicians tell us that renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels, Yet the more we switch to renewables, the higher prices go.
The logical conclusion is: if politicians are so determined to impose their ideology on us it will make energy unaffordable for households and businesses. This means we need different politicians.
30 May 24
NEW NUCLEAR STATION
A new 3GW nuclear power station will be built on Anglesey at the Wylfa site, according to government ministers.It has an existing grid connection, hard bedrock, access to cooling water and the site has been partially cleared already by a previous developer. The old Wylfa B (1972-2015) generated 1 GW for 43 years. The costs and construction time are uncertain; these enormous one-offs (personal opinion) are not the way to low-cost nuclear power, though at the moment we need all the nuclear capacity we can get.
24 May 24
LAST GERMAN PV MANUFACTURER CLOSES
PV Solar Panel manufacturer SolarWorld has filed for bankrupcy. It was unable to compete with China's PV industry, which uses slave labour, fossil-fuelled shipping and cheap coal-fired electricity.
15 May 24
SOLAR GARDEN FENCES
In Australia, Chinese solar panels are so cheap that some people are using them as garden fences. They're not so effective as when they're on house roofs, but you don't have to pay scaffolding costs. It also avoids roof damage by the panel installers.
14 May 24
WE SHOULD WITHDRAW FROM THE ECHR
The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that governments have a duty to protect their citizens from climate change. The impact of this, including on the UK, is that climate change policies must be in place regardless of the costs and benefits.
We are facing a direct threat to democracy and the rule of law.
10 Apr 24
EXPORTING INDUSTRY
A recent report in a major newspaper (the DT) quoted a government source as saying that we are the first major economy to halve our emissions.
The source should have continued as follows:
"We have done this by exporting the pollution and our industry to other countries".
10 Mar 24
VOTERS WANT PROSPERITY, NOT VIRTUE-SIGNALLING
In October 2009, just before the Copenhagen summit, the Prime Minister of the day, Gordon Brown, said that we had 50 days left to save the planet. Nothing much happened in Coperhagen, and we're still here.
In 2021, the Labour Party stated that if elected, they would spend £28 billiion per year until 2030 on their 'green' investment plan. Unsurprisingly, that scheme has now been ditched, and the alleged link between the terms 'green' and 'prosperity' remains unclear.
The Net-Zero torture has been lessened a little, extending the lives of diesel and petrol cars and gas boilers by 5 years. But it's becoming increasingly clear that when people realise they can either have prosperity or an energy system dominated by renewables, but not both, they will choose prosperity.
Orsted, the Danish developer of offshore wind, is sacking hundreds of workers; a result of shrinking subsidies. Meanwhile the increasing costs of energy caused by the disastrous 'Net Zero' policy are relentless. Pubs are closing all over the country because they can't afford to heat their premises; factories are moving abroad or closing down because they need affordable energy to make the goods they sell; farmers in Wales are being ordered to plant 20% of their land with trees instead of producing food.
Our Climate Change Act of 2008 mandated a cut in greenhouse gas emissions of 80% of the 1990 levels by 2050. In 2019, that percentage was upped to 100% ('Net Zero'). It became law after only 88 minutes' debate in the Commons. And yet the link between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures is still unproven.
How was it that the main parties thought they all had to think in the same way about the complicated and uncertain subject of climate change?
It seems to me that the UK's energy policy has been designed specifically to exclude the wishes of its citizens.
24 Feb 24
ELECTRIC CAR INDUSTRY SLOWLY BECOMING A FIASCO
Up to 2021, many world leaders (with a conspicuous lack of science knowledge) were saying that electric vehicles would soon revolutionize transport. It's unravelling, exactly as engineers and physicists predicted.
Renault is abandoning plans to list its EV business Ampere separately. Volvo is winding down its Polestar electric sports car facility. Volkswagen is cutting production of two of its EV models. Ford is scaling back its EV plans in Michigan, saying that it can't make enough money on them to offset costs. Honda and GM are abandoning their plans to buiuld cheaper EVs; they couldn't make the numbers work. Toyota are financing other technologies. They want customers to have choice. Mercedes have now publicily stated they will be manufacturing petrol and diesel cars for years.
Demand for EVs is falling because the vehicles cost a lot more than anyone expected, the performance is worse than expected, and what market there is will captured by the Chinese because they can make vehicles more cheaply than us.
For non-Italians - a 'fiasco' is an empty flask.
23 Feb 24
TWO FACES
The Prime Minister has pushed back the 2030 ban on selling new petrol and diesel cars by 5 years, but he has left in place the punitive targets and fines designed to increase the number of EVs on the roads.
Basing industrial policy on targets rather than needs, and forcing manufacturers to makes cars which people don't want, is not the way to run a profitable industry.
6 Feb 24
NEWS FROM CANADA: ELECTRIC BUSES
Reported to me today: "Heard on the New this morning that the electric school bus fleet here in Prince Edward island, Canada, is a complete flop. The range estimates were false, the charging system is completely inadequate and at any given time, 20% of the bus fleet is in the workshop needing unscheduled repairs. "
27 Jan 24
DRAX AND CARBON CAPTURE, AGAIN
Drax, which burns foreign wood chips imported for the purpose, is planning to put similar plants into action in the US and Canada.
The company says it wants to become a world leader in carbon capture.
There are so many holes in this scheme it's difficult to know where to begin. Firstly, CO2 doesn't drive climate; secondly, the chips travel halfway across the world using tankers fuelled by diesel - under subsidy by the UK government for being so green; thirdly, carbon capture doesn't work anyway, as was shown a decade ago when several similar schemes collapsed after being funded for just long enough to grab a few newspaper headlines.
This nonsense is best summarised as a triumph of hope over experience.
Clearly our politicians didn't pay enough attention in their Chemistry and Physics lessons.
26 Jan 24
DRAX AND CARBON CAPTURE
I noticed in the paper today tthat Drax is considering Carbon Capture to run alongside its environmentally-suspect project of burning wood chip from the other side of the world and getting subsidised for doing so.
In the light of this I've updated a piece I wrote some time ago explaining why Carbon Capture doesn't work. Don't feel obliged to keep it to yourself.
Why Carbon Capture Doesn't Work
26 Jan 24
ELECTRIC BUSES - ANOTHER LONDON FIRE
Another electric bus burst into flames in west London, making it the third such fire in three weeks. Luckily no-one was injured.
The fire happened in Putney at a bus garage. Twenty people were evacuated from the premises before the emergency services arrived. The vehicle was operated by Go-Ahead London, which is now checking its other EVs.
How many more fires before we get serious loss of life? Imagine one of these vehicles on fire, stuck in a tunnel or a confined space.
26 Jan 24
ELECTRIC BUSES
A double-decker bus on the school run in Wimbledon spontaneously combusted and exploded yesterday, filling the area with toxic fumes: hydrogen fluoride, sulphur hexafluoride and hydrogen chloride. Another one (a hybrid) caught fire in Woolwich, north London at about 7am this morning. Firefighters did their best, but it was a long time before the blazes were extinguished.
TfL has taken its electric buses out of service whilst it's working out what to do. The burnt-out shells of the two buses will have to be studied to see exactly what happened. Fortunately no-one was injured.
This morning's blaze was the latest example of safety problems with electric vehicles; the fastest-growing cause of fires in London last year, according to the London Fire Brigade.
Similar problems were experienced in Paris last year. An electric bus caught fire on 4 Apr and another on 29 Apr 22. Both were Bluebus 5SE.
12 Jan 24
NET ZERO
The government's Net Zero plans have proved controversial amongst the more sensible members of the party. Someone not in that category, Chris Skidmore, a former energy minister, has resigned because of the Prime Minister's plans to boost oil and gas production in the North Sea by granting more licences for extraction.
A government source said that it's disappointing that Mr. Skidmore has taken this approach. Not making use of the oil and gas in the North Sea means importing higher-carbon liquefied natural gas which means more global emissions.
For someone so passionate about the environment, it seems like an illogical position.
Mr Sunak has also faced a rebellion by MPs who oppose quotas on the sales of electric cars. This plan involves setting a quota for each dealer and then imposing fines of £15,000 per EV not sold. I suggest this is not the way to run a prosperous car industry.
6 Jan 24
FLOODING
Environment Agency officials promised in 2020 that stronger floodgates, barriers and pumps would be provided to protect historic homes in Tewkesbury, where the Severn and other rivers have burst their banks repeatedly. The work was not done, and this week, around 1000 homes in that area were flooded.
6 Jan 24
GOVERNMENT PLANNING
Over the last fifteen years we have had ample evidence of the government's inability to think long-term, or, indeed, to plan at all. We have seen functioning power stations switched off and demolished before adaquate replacement capacity is ready. We have also seen promotion of electric vehicles before the charging infrastructure is built, at a time when the Grid struggles to supply enough energy for us on cold winter days.
If you need further evidence of the government's inability to plan, what about this: Lord West, the former first sea lord, is asking why the Navy is decommissioning warships without having a new fleet to take over. "We are losing operational ships, which is all very well as long as there's no war in the next few years," he said.
5 Jan 24
EVS: THE TRUTH
If you'd like to learn more about EVs, have a look on Youtube. There are several informative channels, but the best one I've found so far is run by John Cadogan, an Australian car dealer and wordsmith (with a sound knowledge of cars, Physics and Chemistry).
Unlike car journalists, he's not a shill for the big car dealership companies. He's highly entertaining and tells you about the way Land Rover, Skoda and most of the rest treat you after you've parted with your money.
21 Dec 23
big turbines
small turbines